There are several challenges here. One
is that a general consensus has arisen that a reduction in the carbon waste
which enters the atmosphere from traditional forms of power generation is
necessary to slow or reduce dangerous climate change. This means a move from an
economy based around the generation of power from coal, oil, and to an extent
gas, and towards one based upon renewable, abundant, and satisfactory
replacements. The challenge is that
hydrocarbon power is a really efficient and effective form of power for
electricity grids, cars, aeroplanes, heating, and factories. It is also
globally used by competitor economies. Switching from it might therefore limit
the capacity of economies, create advantages for competitors, lower living
standards, and reduce the amount of investment capital available for the
development of renewable resources.
A second challenge is that the
renewables sector is one covering a great many things. Some of these things,
whilst improving all the time, are not stable replacements for the power that hospitals,
infrastructure and families need; electricity generation by wind or solar power
is not appropriate except as a ‘top up’ to grids at the moment, and needs
subsidy to encourage development and take up. In addition, the creation of
solar panels, windmills, lighter bikes and cars, and carbon-free materials
requires the use of resources which are depleted, or which in production
generates high energy demand and pollution. Carbon in the form of oil is also
built into the plastics industry at a basic level, and the use of plastic and
carbon fibre-based machinery or items which accompany renewable energy
therefore has a carbon cost.
Making carbon-based energy more
expensive might also simply encourage the use of ‘dirtier’ substitutes which
are also carbon based. If oil and coal were made expensive to use, wood
burning, pulp and paper burning, and methane-producing activities might
increase. This, along with ‘fracking’ (which would become relatively cheaper if
oil extraction and burning were more expensive) would represent a government
failure.
A third challenge is that some
renewable use displaces rather than eliminates power generation; electric cars
and bicycles, as much as mobile phones and bitcoin, require electric
infrastructure and more, not fewer, power plants. More pedestrianisation and public
transport implies the redesign of cities away from efficient car journeys and
supply systems based on trucks, which may mean more pollution, not less, as
buildings and roads are changed and petrol-based transport is caught in more
congestion and delay. A concentration on renewables may thus raise prices in
supermarkets, putting more of the poor further into poverty, and resulting in
more cheap imports and more production of inferior goods.
A fourth problem is that the cleanest
form of energy is nuclear. Nuclear is also very cheap, until its safety,
precautionary, and catastrophic costs are considered; it is very useful until
it goes wrong, and protecting against it going wrong adds greatly to its
expense.
Finally, switching to renewable energy
will not help cope with global inequality, limit the use of non-renewables
elsewhere, provide a replacement for mass employment and structural
unemployment, limit and reduce global populations, nor will it in itself reduce
wealth inequalities. Climate change is also not fully predictable; slight
variations in temperature rise could, for instance, lead to more food
production and lower prices in Eurasia and North America, leading to global
growth which, paradoxically, could encourage renewables.
Limiting oil and oil-based products, on
the other hand, could simply hobble responses to unusual weather, greater
population density, or downward temperatures in other parts of the world. If
cheap and abundant power is restricted, a burden in terms of the increased expense
of refrigeration, clothes and dish washing, and transport, will also fall more
on the poor than the rich. Artificial fibres, plastics, and fertilisers are
also all substantially oil-based; would not using so much oil for power, either
by new technology or the deliberate regulation or prohibition of oil-based
products, leave more for the fibres, plastics, and fertilisers, or less, as the
oil extraction industry became less profitable? Would a Jeavons paradox
develop, in which, because a thing was perceived to be running out, more of it
was used, apply?
It must be a good thing not to deplete
resources, and to use renewable power wherever possible. It is necessary to
understand the variety of economic pressures and challenges associated with the
idea, however.
Comments
Post a Comment